91¶¶Òù

91¶¶Òù expects the domestic price of feeder cattle to fall by 9.0% during 2026-27 to 406.2 cents per kilogram. Saleyard cattle prices are forecast to decline as export conditions become less favourable following two years of exceptionally strong price growth. Weaker beef import demand from major markets, particularly China, softer processor demand and a stronger Australian dollar are expected to reduce export returns, outweighing the support provided by relatively tight cattle supplies. Despite the decline, prices are forecast to remain well above long-run historical averages.Following periods of drought, which eased in early 2020 and showed significant improvement by 2021, farmers undertook herd rebuilding activities, encouraged by higher rainfall levels that relieved the impact of feed inputs. This change in weather conditions increased competition for feeder cattle, placing upwards pressure on prices over the three years through 2021-22. Yet, late 2023 brought a return of drought conditions, driving the domestic price of feeder cattle downwards. However, with solid rainfall in parts of Queensland and NSW in early 2025, farmers are again restocking their herds, applying upwards pressure on prices.Fluctuations in cattle turnoff rates, local and international demand for beef, weather conditions and the Australian dollar cause volatility. Turnoff rates are defined as the number of cattle sold to downstream processors or export markets.Strong demand for Australian beef in export markets has supported both beef and feeder cattle prices over the past five years. Growth in exports was robust in China, followed by South Korea and Indonesia, as these countries hold Australian beef in high regard because of the disease-free status of Australian cattle herds. More recently, softer Chinese import demand, weaker processor margins and the higher Australian dollar have tempered this support, even though relatively tight cattle numbers continue to underpin prices. Overall, 91¶¶Òù expects the domestic price of feeder cattle to decline at a compound annual rate of 4.7% over the five years through 2026-27.