91¶¶Òù

IBISWorld forecasts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to decrease by 0.6% in 2026-27, to 504.0 Mt CO2-e. Electricity-related GHG emissions are forecast to be the main driver behind the decline, as more of the investment into the green energy pipeline comes online throughout the year. However, the transport, industrial processes, waste and agricultural sectors are forecasted to be less successful in decreasing GHG emissions throughout the year, limiting the expected decline to 0.6% compared to 2025-26 emissions.Electricity emissions have declined the most out of all sectors between 2020-21 and 2025-26, falling by 12.9% over the period. A large contribution to this trend has been the expansion in solar generation capacity, both via household-level rooftop installations and large-scale commercial solar farms. Fugitive emissions, which are emissions of gas or vapours during the extraction and refining of fossil fuels, have also declined by 7.6% over the same period, a trend that has largely been a by-product of the reduced reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation. Conversely, transport emissions have climbed significantly between 2020-21 and 2025-26, partially offsetting declines in GHG emissions from electricity generation. While a large driver of the increase in transport emissions has been the growth in demand from the aviation sector post-pandemic, transport emissions have rebounded higher than the pre-pandemic peak level.Australia's GHG emissions peaked in 2017-18, following the Abbott Government's repeal of the carbon pricing scheme in July 2014. This scheme, known as the carbon tax, contributed to significant declines in emissions in both 2012-13 and 2013-14, particularly from electricity generation. However, the removal of the scheme resulted in an overall increase in GHG emissions, reaching a record high in 2017-18. Since then, emissions have declined over the long run as a result of improving societal attitudes towards environmental awareness, leading to rising pressure on the Federal Government to implement emission reduction policies. A collapse in economic activity during the pandemic accelerated this trend in 2019-20 and 2020-21. As pandemic restrictions eased, this trend reversed, resulting in a marginal uptick in overall emissions in 2022-23. In 2023-24, the long-run GHG emissions decline trend returned, as all sectors, excluding the transport industry, saw emissions fall over the course of the year. While overall GHG emissions dropped significantly in 2024-25, the agricultural and electricity sectors were the main drivers of the trend, with most other sectors showing relatively stagnant GHG emissions compared to the prior year. This trend was once again evident in 2025-26, as only the electricity sector made strong gains in reducing GHG emissions by 3.8%. In comparison, all other sectors combined saw GHG emissions fall by only 0.2%, which put a handbrake on the total decline. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts GHG emissions to decline at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2026-27.