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IBISWorld forecasts total business profit to climb 3.2% in 2026-27, to $542.5 billion. This is expected to be driven by rising commodity prices. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up global oil prices. This is lifting export prices for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Additionally, global energy shortfalls brought on by closures and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are also causing coal prices to climb. The price of gold is also expected to continue its strong upward trajectory amid increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty as investors view gold as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic risk. Demand from central banks for gold reserves is also projected to remain strong, placing upward pressure on prices. The Mining sector in general and these three commodities in particular are major drivers of total business profit. However, persistent inflationary pressure is set to weigh on total business profit. Negative consumer sentiment and a higher cost of living are set to weigh on consumer spending and the higher interest rates are tightening net interest margins in the Finance sector.Total business profit fell sharply over the two years through 2024-25. A combination of negative consumer confidence and rising geopolitical uncertainty underpins this drop. Elevated interest rates subdued growth in household discretionary spending and kept consumer confidence negative. These trends placed downwards pressure on revenues across various sectors. Adding to these challenges were escalating global trade tensions, particularly with the return of US tariffs under Trump's administration. These measures heightened volatility in international markets and disrupted established supply chains, making it more difficult and costly for exporter industries to access key overseas markets. The uncertainty around export volumes, import of key inputs, and commodity prices is placing further strain on total business profits. Even so, growth in realised farm incomes limits further slumps in total business profit in 2024-25.Despite recent drops, total business profit has expanded over the past five years, supported by significant rises in some commodity prices, like gold and LNG. Additionally, free trade agreements with countries in Asia, such as China, Japan and South Korea, and ongoing marketing efforts by agricultural industry associations in Asia have supported export demand for many agricultural commodities over the period. Many of these products exported, like rock lobster, are high in value and have strong profit margins, which have boosted total business profit over the past five years.The Manufacturing division has expanded over the past five years, fuelled by demand for food product manufacturing. Yet, intense import competition has hampered business profitability among domestic manufacturers, a trend exacerbated by high operating costs. Tourism services operators have also recorded expanding profits over the period, following a strong recovery since the pandemic. This has offset the lower profit in several key manufacturing industries. IBISWorld forecasts total business profit to inch-up at a compound annual rate of 0.1% over the five years through 2026-27.